Uneven, slow pandemic recovery seen for Arizona, Tucson | Business News

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“Overall, the outlook for Arizona, Phoenix and Tucson is good in the short term,” said Hammond. “I think employment and population growth will accelerate over the next few years, but we will see that income growth and taxable sales actually slow down significantly,” he said.

Hammond cited the results of the latest U.S. census, which showed Arizona added nearly 760,000 residents, an 11.9% increase.

That made Arizona the 10th fastest growing state, but the slowest rate of population growth in a decade, he said.

But solid population growth is likely to continue as Arizona’s relatively low cost of living, strong employment growth, and natural amenities attract migrants from other states, Hammond said.

Although Arizona employment is expected to grow 4.3% this year, personal income is only projected to grow 0.9% after falling 2% last year, and retail sales, including distance selling, are expected to grow this year expected to rise by only 4.4%. and that growth rate is expected to decrease to 3.1% in 2022.

The fiscal stimulus has resulted in strong income growth that boosted consumer spending, but that will end later this year.

The leisure and hospitality sector has recovered somewhat as restaurant and bar sales have now returned to pre-pandemic levels and gas sales have increased, Hammond said.

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